Blood and Iron

"nicht durch Reden und Majoritätsbeschlüsse werden die großen Fragen der Zeit entschieden – das ist der große Fehler von 1848 und 1849 gewesen – sondern durch Eisen und Blut." ("The great issues of the day will be determined not through debating and parliamentary majorities but through blood and iron") Otto von Bismark, 1862.
There is a lot of sabre rattling going on these days with Israeli planes flying missions to prove that they can deliver a surgical strike against Iran and the threat coming from Tehran that the Straits of Hormuz will be blocked should this happen is not to be taken lightly. Nevertheless, I doubt that the Iranians are capable of blocking the straits of Hormuz although certain vested interests might just let them go ahead and do it anyway, after all oil at $500 a barrel is good for business. No, the conventional war can be won quite quickly, however, that is when the real war will begin. Of that, I am sure!
The sun has got its hat on in Suzhou, we are basking in 33 degrees celsius and the Historian's brain drifts back to June 28th 1914 and the beginning of the end of a particularly hot summer in Europe and the drift towards a war that would be over by Christmas. The neo-conservatives and Zionists are going for gold, the first shot has still to be fired but the portents are there; the "shot" will be fired and it is worth heeding Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, who says, "Opening up a third front right now would be extremely stressful on us. That doesn't mean we don't have capacity or reserve but that would really be very challenging, and also the consequences of that are sometimes very difficult to predict."1 The Admiral is, of course, correct but although the consequences are very difficult to predict, the stakes are high and with Iran in the bag, the west will dictate the pace for at least the next fifty years. Let the "Realpolitik" take its course.
1 http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/news/2008/07/will_israel_bomb_iran.html