The Taliban are Back

It would appear that negotiations between the Taliban and the Karzai government in Kabul are well under way and that these talks are being sponsored by Riyadh.1 They might offer the West a way out of a war that it has been losing for some time and they might offer Karzai the opportunity to avoid sharing the fate of Dr Najibullah*. Hamid Karzai, the man with the colourful shawls, who likes having his picture taken with world leaders, has presided over an administration that has distinguished itself through cronyism, patronage and downright corruption; his brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai, is one of the country's major drug barons but Ahmed is not alone when it comes to profiting from his connections and other government officials and sycophants build luxury villas in front of an impoverished population. Hate and resentment under such circumstances can only be normal and it is a hate that is also directed towards the foreign invader. "Oh, and 'Uncle Sam' and his motley collection of client states are only trying to help you." Well try telling that to a mother who has lost her children, a husband who has lost a wife or to a villager who has lost his village. Every day innocents are the victims of NATO bombings. Indeed, it is a situation that is so out of control that even Hamid Karzai finds himself complaining to his patron. Of course, one might suspect that here he is trying to take some insurance out for the day when the men in the white turbans arrive at his front door. No, what he wants is to take the war into Pakistan.2 Whatever, even that is hardly likely to save his neck. Therefore, in the report in today's 'Observer' it comes as no surprise and Hamid and his nephew, Hekmat Karzai, have admitted that talks are taking place.3
What do these talks mean and what will they lead to? Well, I would like to quote directly from the article; "Hekmat Karzai, director of a think tank in Kabul, said that although discussions with the Taliban 'might not be too difficult... getting the international community on board would be extremely hard'."4 The "international community" is, of course, the same "'Uncle Sam' and his motley collection of client states" that I have mentioned above; the people who are bombing the men, women and children. No, they will not be too happy about the Taliban returning to power. However, they might, once again, see it as the lesser evil. For some of the people of Afghanistan it might also be seen as such. Nevertheless,what it will mean for the region, remains to be seen. What about India and Iran? What about the so-called 'United National Front' in Afghanistan and the different groups that make it up? One would like to think that cool heads on all sides might get together and hammer out a compromise that Afghanistan and the region can live with. One would like to think that there can be a real diplomatic solution rather than American unilateralism; Pakistan, India, Iran and the other parties in Afghanistan itself all have to be brought into the equation. and, finally, one wants to hope that the people of Afghanistan and the region have a future. This, of course, is hope gone astray and there are too many factors mitigating against any optimism; the ethnic make up of Afghanistan, the Durand line,5 , which is officially the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan but which cuts through Pashtun tribal areas. It is a border that is largely ignored by the Pashtun, who make up the bulk of the Taliban as they move with ease in an area that is, more or less, out of bounds to the Pakistani army, an t army whose intelligence service, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), helped by the CIA and Saudi money, facilitated the Talibans rise to power and is now reluctant to move against them. Moreover, there is the ethnic make up of Pakistan itself and, finally, there are, of course, the regional players; India, Pakistan and Iran. Once 'Uncle Sam' and his motley crew have gone the region will still be faced with a number of uncertainties. For us in the West it will disappear from the newspapers.
* Dr Najibullah, President of Afghanistan from 1986-1992, executed by the Taliban in September 1996 when they took Kabul
1 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/28/afghanistan.terrorism
2 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/26/world/asia/26afghan.html
3 see 1 ibid
4 ibid
5 An agreement, that drew up the border between Afghanistan and British India that was forced on the Afghan Amir Abdur Rahmen Khan in 1893 by the British