Friday, January 30, 2009

Pulling Strings

Nkunda had obviously become a bit of a liability for Kagame and he has, therefore, been reigned in. However, it is unlikely that Kigali will be extraditing him to the DRC and in the meantime, the evidence would appear to suggest that the DRC's cooperation with Rwanda is progressing apace and with Kabila in Kinshasa agreeing to 2,000 Rwandan troops entering North Kivu and with Bosco Ntaganda promising to integrate his CNDP soldiers into the Congolese army and join the Congolese-Rwandan military action against the Hutu FDLR militia it would appear that a number of things are happening. Firstly, Kagame has the opportunity to dispose of the FDLR who are made up of ethnic Hutus and he also has the opportunity to create a buffer zone on Rwanda's western border, this in turn will also bring a degree of security to the mineral and crop-rich North Kivu province that the whole region will benefit from. Secondly, Kabila might yet see a Congolese flag flying in Rutshuru in North Kivu instead of the CNDP one. Nevertheless, in Kinshasa anger and indignitation are already being voiced because of Rwandan troops being allowed to enter the countryand the stakes for Kabila in making a pact with the "enemy" are high. Unlikely, perhaps, but we might yet see Kagame serving up Nkunda's head for the sake of saving his cooperation with Kinshasa. He might indeed and the suspicion is that the bigger players are still pulling the strings in the background and with the Rwandan army now in North Kivu it would appear that the Chinese are going to be doing even less mining than they have managed to do until now and that just when the area might be becoming safer. The evidence would appear to suggest that the grey eminence is in Washington.

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