The Great Game Part One

Possibly more than 100,000 Iraqis have died since George Bush declared victory on the 1st of May 2003 aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln. The illegal war, which had been undertaken under the guise of a war on terror that was in fact a war for oil had been allowed to proceed because of tacit support from Russia and China in the U.N. security council where both countires refrained from using their vetos. A similar number have also died in Russia's own dirty war in Chechnya. However, the oil pipeline that runs from Baku, via Grozny, to the Russian city of Tikoretsk is under control and Chechnya's considerable oil sources - although declining for some time - have been secured. Similarly Xinjiang, China's most westerly province, has massive reserves of oil and gas and the area is also important as a potential pipeline conduit for crude oil from Kazakhstan. The rhetoric from Washington, Moscow and Beijing is all too similar as all three pursue their war on terror. The Great Game type competition that was briefly revived in the mid nineties appears to have subsided and, at least for the time being, there appears to be some sort of "gentleman's agreement" between the three. However, with the increasing demand and competition for oil this agreement cannot last and when the time comes the Chechnyans and Uighurs will become a cause celebre for the west, Beijing and Moscow's support for Iran will become more concrete and the US, Russia and China will play out their game in Central Asia. Ultimately, it is, of course, a game that cannot be won.

Above is a map of the playing field.

The Obama Road Show

We are, of course, being confronted by some incredible nonsense at the moment and there is "ego" following the hype around the "hype" fellow quite closely and did he not do well in London to actually get all and sundry to prop up his not so murky, rather blatant, little global financial domination project? However, he has now moved on and after his little effort in Strasburg at getting France to commit more fully to the "new" NATO, he now finds himself in Baden-Baden, where he really does appear to have the Germans eating out of his hand and one wonders when Berlin will be committing combat troops to the Hindukush. Christ, even Adolf called it a day when he got to the Caspian. Yes, the NATO really has found itself an interesting little role, but surely with the fall of the Warsaw Pact, it had lost its "raison d’être" and wasn't Gorbatshev promised that if a united Germany were allowed to join the NATO, there would be no further expansion of the alliance eastwards? Well, all of that was "yesteryear" and not only has the NATO expanded into the former Soviet satellites it has also moved onto the former Soviet Union itself; with further moves into Georgia and the Ukraine on the horizon.
However, the expansion of NATO's membership is only one way in which "Uncle Sam" is trying to preserve his global hegemony. NATO has long since expanded its sphere of operations outside the territory of its members and today we are all threatened by Afghani terrorists, therefore, all of us will have to get involved in the fight on terrorism where it is to be won. What drivel, what disgusting puerile drivel; it is difficult to think of one incident where an Afghani has blown him or herself up outside Afghanistan but I read every day of Afghanis being killed by American and NATO bombs. No, what we have is one last desperate throw of the dice to get that pipeline built from Turkmenistan in Central Asia to India, a pipeline which would go through Afghanistan's rebellious Kandahar province and Pakistan. "Uncle Sam's" sycophants will not only provide additional cannon fodder but they will also lend the gamble its legitimacy. The stakes are high and with the "hype" man already appearing to have won the "money game" in London a few days ago, he is now ready to pursue the "Great Game" that I spoke about in earlier posts(1) with a renewed vigour. Yes, this is about hegemony in Central Asia and about geo-political domination of the planet and when "they are lying and dying on Afghanistan's plains, and the women come out to cut up what remains" let us at least have no illusions.
1 http://thediplomatabroad.blogspot.com/search?q=%22the+great+game%22

The Great Game Part Two

After the Lancaster House Agreement in 1979, when Rhodesia became Zimbabwe, I sort of lost interest in that part of the world. The suppression of the opposition in the early eighties went more or less unnoticed by me as did the land confiscations and redistributions later on and now Zimbabwe is constantly in the news and all of a sudden we all have to be interested, why? The parallels with Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere are so blatantly obvious that the semi thinking man cannot help but see behind the drivel.
Western support for Saddam Hussein in his war against Iran has been well documented and, as long as he was perceived to be protecting “our interests”, the nature of the man and the regime were hardly an issue. Afghanistan was completely forgotten for about ten years after the Soviet withdrawal and when, at the beginning of the nineties, Saudi money, the CIA and Pakistan’s ISI, facilitated the Taliban’s rise to power the United States believed they had someone they could do business with. They were, of course, wrong and it was time to demonize the man and the regime, and Zimbabwe?
Robert Mugabe is probably as much of a nutcase as Saddam Hussein and Mullah Omar. However, this should not stop us thinking about the real reasons why the United Kingdom and the United States in particular want a regime change and when Morgan Tsvangirai’s ‘Movement for Democratic Change’ seek to impress the “international community” that “international community” is in fact a euphemism for the Western powers and it is time for the West to reassert itself on the continent of Africa. In the global village the “great game” is no longer confined to Central Asia and Zimbabwe is a prime example of just how ruthless and hypocritical the West can be when it comes to pursuing its interests. It is also interesting to note that this accentuated interest takes place not only in the wake of flawed elections but, and more importantly, that it also takes place some four months after a high ranking Chinese trade delegation visited Zimbabwe and signed a number of agreements. Of course, we should also be aware of a number of other activities being pursued by the Chinese and, indeed, of China's real motives. Let the game commence!

The South China Sea and learning to play the "Great Game"

Any unbiased glance at the map above might at least indicate that should the PRC's claims in the South China Sea be realised then we would have PLA troops practically within breaststroke distance of the Philippines and Malaysia. However, it is not the purpose of this piece to discuss the validity of the various rival claims in the South China Sea in general and on the Spratly Islands in particular and, even if  the interested reader might want to take a look at those claims. it is another question we should ask ourselves. How often are claims to territory resolved by force instead of peacefully?

With the People's Liberation Army Daily  commenting that China "resolutely opposes any country unrelated to the South China Sea issue meddling in disputes," and with the Philippines, Vietnam and Japan "being encouraged by Washington to play a more assertive role in containing China", it is easy to discern what is happening. We might have a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, recently saying that China, "will not resort to the use of force or the threat of force," however, the United States is already upping the ante by using its military muscle to maintain its predominance in waters close to the Chinese mainland. Moreover, by allying itself to all the other parties in the dispute Washington not only has a ready-made coalition for any coming conflict in that particular region but with the John F Kennedy School of Government graduate, Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj, in power in Mongolia, and US military bases in every country on China's western borders, it will need some maverick diplomacy on China's part to move forward. That diplomacy might start with the Spratlys and some real compromise on Beijing's part would do a great deal to break Washington's stranglehold.

Of course, the oil and gas that are thought to be off the coast of the Spratly Islands, and which would help China fuel is growing economy, would be a high price to pay. Nevertheless, there is evidence to suggest that a bit of "Realpolitik" on Beijing's part could have very serious repercussions for American power. China might have entered the "Great Game" but it will be interesting to see how it plays its cards.

Back to the Great Game

Only a couple of weeks ago the head of U.S. Central Command, General David Petraeus, appeared very sure that the U.S. air base at Manas in Kyrgyzstan, which has a vital logistical importance for the American and NATO forces in Aghanistan, would not be closed down.(1) However, it looks like the Krygyzstan government has long since decided to do just that(2) and it would appear that the "hope and change" man is not going to have it all his own way when he comes to upping the stakes in the Hindukush. With Russia and Tajikistan only offering airspace for the transport of non-military equipment to Afghanistan, with Uzbekistan having expelled U.S. troops from the base on its territory in 2005 in a dispute over human rights issues and with the Taliban attacks forcing Pakistan to close supply routes to U.S. and NATO forces one wonders how the "hope and change" man is going to do anything but maim and murder innocent Afghanis, while sacrificing young Americans. The portents are surely obvious for "Uncle Sam" and his cohorts, the Great Game cannot be won, but then it never could.
1http://wavy.com/dpp/news/military_ap_Kyrgyzstan_USGeneralBaseNotClose_20090119
2 http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2009/02/20092673655553460.html

The Spanish interlude approaches its end

There appears to be a life that is increasingly interfering with the blog and it was a big effort tonight to pull myself away from the people who I have spent the last ten weeks doing this course with. Nevertheless, in for a penny, in for a pound and here is me persisting with my at least one entry a day.
The interesting news is of Russian-Turkish rapproachment and with the Turkish President, Abdullah Gul having paid a four-day visit ot the Russian Federation from February 12 to 15.(1) That and the Americans being "forced" to abandon their base in Manas, Kyrgistan, are alone enough to suggest that the "Great Game" is really on. On the one hand we have the Government of Prime Minister Recep Erdogan showing increasing impatience with Washington's policies in the Middle East and on the other we see the Russians adopting a more agressive foreign policy against encirclement by NATO. The "Great Game" is on and the evidence would seem to suggest that "Uncle Sam" is not going to have it all his own way.
http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/Geopolitics___Eurasia/Turkey___Russia/turkey___russia.html

The Great Game Revisited 1

The day started off well, being in England, you have the English weather and the English weather is very changeable, so yesterday's rain had disappeared and the sun had its hat on and I took myself down to the square in front of Uxbridge tube station and bought myself the papers, went to Costas, bought myself a big cup of latte and perused the 'Observer' and the 'Mail on Sunday'.
Now as we all know, the 'Mail on Sunday' is read by the wives of the people who run the country and it is not really suitable for a bright boy like me. However, the bias on the situation in Georgia in that one paper in particular caught my eye and I just had to read it and it was all there; "vital pipeline to West threatened by escalating war", "Russian bear goes for West's jugular", "1,100 mile oil pipeline that helps supply the UK"1 ..... the great game refered to in some of my earlier posts is in full swing and with Russia forcing Georgia to withdraw unconditionally from South Ossetia, the bear is there and all the West can do is pin its hopes on diplomacy. However, the real culprit here is Georgia's volatile president, Mikheil Saakashvili, who flaunted international law when he launched the assault on Tskhinvali. This is a man who wants to take his friendship with the West one big step further and join NATO and we can only thank God that the Germans and French put the dampers on that one or else we would already be going to war with Russia.
1 'The Mail on Sunday', August 10, 2008 pp1,4,5

Get the Picture Part Two

Kosovo, like Afghanistan, is land locked and like Afghanistan it is of great strategic importance. Pipelines pass from the Caspian Sea through Kosovo both into the European Union and across to the Albanian coast. From the Albanian coast, oil is then shipped to America. Moreover,the thriving narcotics trade that provides no little income for some American banks goes through Pristina. This all happens under the watchful eye of CIA trained Hashim Thaci, the "country's" president and head of the Democratic Party. Thaci's dependence on the goodwill of NATO and the United States will ensure that his government continues to do as it is asked. Bismarks, "some damn foolish thing in the Balkans" comes to mind and that foolish thing is 'Uncle Sam'. However, in a further reference to Bismark the area is, still "not worth the bones of a single Pomeranian grenadier." The Serbs are vexed, the Russians are unhappy and the next crisis is only a matter of time. Not only is the Great Game of the nineteenth century being repeated in Central Asia but the geopolitics of that era are now being played out elsewhere too. History does indeed repeat itself!

Not a lot to be proud of

After the 1707 Act of Union, Scotland held onto three things that distinguished it from its southern neighbour; the kirk, or Church of Scotland, its education system and its own legal system. Scottish people tend to be proud of all three. Therefore, a couple of sentences will be spent on the first two institutions before two examples that refer to the legal system will be looked at; one where Scots law differs from English law and the other where it is beginning to show remarkable similarities.
Firstly, the church, with its, doctrine of predestination, the elected and the damned and all of that nonsense, its strict adherence of the sabbath and its, "you will burn in the fires of hell" attitude, is as gobbly gook as other churches and when it comes to putting the fear of god into innocents it is right up there with the wahabbi version of sunni islam. Indeed, if it wasn't for the fact that western civilisation has arrived at a point in time where it is par for the course to separate church and state, our presbytarian friends would probably be modelling their own little intolerant theocracy on the desert kingdom, oh, and what about the education system doesn't that produce free thinkers who would prevent this happening? Well, while scottish universities have produced some brilliant minds, a lot of real fucking idiots have gone and are going through the school system and, indeed, in my day, some of them even got up to university where they could always study theology, if no other faculty would have them. Of course, today anybody can get to university and not only in Scotland. Still, there is, in fact, a fine balance up in Scotland where the brilliant minds and free thinkers continue to exercise an influence, but only just, only just and if you don't believe me, take yourself along to a Rangers versus Celtic game.
Finally, that brings me to the "respected" Scottish legal system and I did have a sort of respect for it when in 1974 I was about to invoke a clause in Scots law called "minority in lesion" to get out of the British Army. It would appear that the contract I signed in Scotland as a 16 year old was not binding as I was a minor, whereas under English law my signature as a sixteen year old along with that of my mother would have meant my refusing to sign again at eighteen would have meant I was commiting a breach of contract. Anyway there was the army telling me that if I didn't reduce my contract to at least another three years they could oblige me to serve automatically for another nine. Anyway, I was about to set a legal precedent that would have had at least the not so not so daft "jocks" refusing to sign up for their Queen's shilling at which point the Army then decided to give me the order of the boot and let me pursue the rest of my life. My affection for Scottish law was immense and I walked out into civvy street convinced that the Scottish legal system is just dandy. Until, that is, what John Pilger refers to as "The Great Lockerbie Whitewash" came along.1
When I was a young man I would invariably find myself hitching up the A74 back to Glasgow and a couple of times I would stop off in Lockerbie for a cup of coffee and so it was that at some point in late January or early February 1990 I got to see the great big holes where a couple of houses used to be and they were not not too far from the little town's centre. Yes, we were over the border and this was definitely something for the Galloway constabulary to look into. Seriously though when it came to trying the perpetrators under Scots Law, I was all for it. The problem was that when the trial came along it was a farce and one theory is that it was a farce because the CIA didn't want a drugs run through Frankfurt Airport, that they were using to facilitate their little political games, to be uncovered.2 Whatever, the nature of the farce, a farce it was and when it led to the acquital of Al Amin Khalifa Fhimah but the conviction of Abdel bassset Ali al-Megrahi on 270 counts of murder and a subsequent life sentence for the latter it brought shame and disgrace on the Scottish court. Indeed, it puts Scottish justice right up there with its English counterpart.
"Lockerbie bomber with prostrate cancer may be freed to go home" is one of the headlines in today's 'Independent', which goes on to say, "It is unclear whether an agreement to repatriate Megrahi would mean the end to an appeal he has launched to quash his conviction over the destruction of PanAm flight 103, leading to 270 deaths in December 1988." While adding, "Some members of the victims' families have said they would not object to Megrahi's early release. Jim Swire, whose daughter, Fiona, was killed, said: "I think the cancer is a very serious threat to his life and it would be a tragedy if he is to spend what is left of the rest of his life in a Scottish prison, particularly if he is not guilty of the crime of which he was found guilty."3 "it would be a tragedy if he is to spend what is left of the rest of his life in a Scottish prison, particularly if he is not guilty of the crime of which he was found guilty."Yes, it would and Jim knows and I know that the verdict on January 31, 2001 by a panel of Scottish Judges sitting in a special court at Camp Zeist in the Netherlands was a triumph for the CIA but a slap in the face for the families who had lost their loved ones and who are still awaiting justice. It was, moreover, the day the great "independent" Scottish judiciary had its "Guildford Seven".4
1 "The Great Lockerbie Whitewash" in John Pilger's edited "Tell Me No Lies"
2 Ibid pp 219, 220
3 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/lockerbie-bomber-with-prostate-cancer-may-be-freed-to-go-home-968622.html
4 http://ella.gnn.tv/blogs/3968/30_years_later_Blair_apologises_to_Guildford_Seven
The picture above shows Abdel bassset Ali al-Megrahi at the time of his trial.

The "revolution" in Kyrgyztan

Well, the evidence would seem to suggest that the Americans were behind the so-called "tulip revolution" in Kyrgyzstan five years ago with Mike Stone, at that time, the project director for Freedom House, a so-called "pro-democracy" foundation that was part-funded by the American government, reported as having said, "mission accomplished,"after the crowds drove out the then President Askar Akayev and his family. It would appear that Akayev's downfall was not so much his ruling with a heavy hand, or his rigged presidential election in 2000, after all Bush was doing much the same thing in the United States, but rather his courting the Chinese and Russians. Yes, it would seem that there was a hard-nosed calculation by Washington that its vital interests could be better served by a regime change and it could very well be that Akayev's decision to let the Russians open the Kant Base in October 2003 was the final straw for Washington. Whatever the reasons, it had nothing to do with "democracy" then and it certainly hasn't now. An interesting diversion and the Russians don't seem to hold a grudge against the ex-despot and Askar is now a professor at the Moscow State University. However, back to the "real" story. Or, is there really a story here at all? Well, not if we are looking for a revolution!

This week's "revolution" in Kyrgyztan has seen the man who  replaced Akayev deposed and replaced, as interim leader, by Roza Otunbayeva. Superficially, this might appear ominious for the Americans, with the mainstream media quick to suggest that Russia helped to oust Bakiyev. However, with Otunbayeva already having confirmed that the American base at Manas will not be closed, we shouldn't be paying too much attention to the daily drivel and while we shouldn't be too surprised if Otunbayeva and her cronies ultimately go the same way as Akayev and Bakiyev, it won't be before they have established another corrupt "little" regime, which like its predecessor will seek to play ball with both the Russians and the Americans, to the complete satisfaction of neither, while lining their own pockets just like their predecessors. Indeed, what we have is not so much another twist in the "Great Game" but rather a continuation of it and what we also have is a long way from any real revolution. Then, of course, revolution, never was "orange", or "green", or "velvet", "or "twitter". Indeed, the results of these "revolutions" are surprisingly beneficial to all and sundry; the "King is dead, long live the King" and Akayev turns up as a professor in Moscow although he has no real need to work at all and we might expect Bakiyev and his family to be living the good life if not in Bishkek, perhaps in Switzerland. Let them eat cake and we can be fairly certain that when the time comes for Otunbayeva to go, she won't be dining on bread and water.

The end of the "Orange revolution" and is the tide turning?

Viktor Yanukovych's, agreement with Moscow which allows the Russian fleet to extend its stay in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol for another 25 years after the present lease expires in 2017, might be viewed by some as compromising the Ukraine's sovereignty. Most certainly, it does steer the Ukraine back into Russia's orbit. Nevertheless, because of the benefits that it brings to both parties surely this is a natural development. In return Yanukovych has been given massive discounts for natural gas. Natural gas which, of course, also flows in pipes through the Ukraine to Western Europe. Indeed, this can be a win-win situation for both parties concerned.

Moreover, while Washington might be motivating the former Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, to take a stance against this supposedly further erosion of Ukrainian sovereignty, the reality is that the developments since the 14th february, when the Ukraine's electoral commission declared Victor Yanukovych the winner of the presidential run-off signal the death knell for the much touted "Orange revolution". More importantly, however, coming after Moscow's swift and crushing reaction to Mikail Saakashvili's adventurism in South Ossetia in August 2008, it represents a very real challenge to Washington's plans for full spectrum dominance. Most certainly, the events in the Ukraine, South Ossetia and Kyrgyzstan are all indicative of Moscow, after years of NATO encirclement and encroachment, not only saying "no more" but also reasserting its own influence in the area.

Furthermore, while there are those who will see this as an attempt by the Russian bear to undermine the sovereignty of its neighbours, we might argue that it is natural for Moscow to develop close ties with those countries, which don't only border it but indeed are strategically crucial if it is to act independently at all in the geopolitical "great game", which is being played out. Naturally, we might also argue that this de facto implies hegemony by Russia in a region where there is a natural antipathy towards domination from Moscow. Nevertheless, it would be foolish to undermine the common interests that exist in the region as a whole and it just might be that agreements such as those made by the Ukraine and Russia could be used to redifine the nature of cooperation in the region. Despite those suspicions, which are bound to exist, this can, as has been stated in the first paragraph, be a win-win situation for all the parties concerned. Furthermore, while the planners and Washington might not like it, the foreign body in Central Asia is not Russia and it might just be that the developments in the Ukraine and elsewhere are indicative of at least a tacit acceptance of that.

China Looks West

There was an article in the 'Guardian' of 15th October, where it is reported that the Chinese sovereign wealth fund has bought a 1 billion pound sterling stake in BP.(1) This means that the fund has built up a stake of some 1% in the oil giant. Not much, however, considering the importance of BP, it is worth taking note of and all the more so considering the Chinese stake in the investment bank Morgan Stanley.(2) The Chinese are buying into two of the three pillars that have supported Anglo-Saxon domination of the world for the last century (3) and if we think that there would be some trepidation because of this in Washington and London a report in this week's 'New York Times' would appear to indicate otherwise.
It seems that the IMF does not have the money, for "Uncle Sam" and friends to buy their sycophants and set the conditions that will keep a number of countries like the Ukraine on their side and convince countries like Belarus to come over. This, of course, is standard procedure and facilitates the rape of those countries assets, and sets the West up strategically for the "Great Game". Now, we have Gordon Brown asking the Chinese for money to support the IMF.(4) Looking not only to the Gulf states for help Brown says, "“China also has very substantial reserves,” he added. “There are a number of countries that actually can do quite a lot in the immediate future to make sure that the international community has sufficient resources to support countries that get themselves into difficulties.”(5) The question, of course, arises, why should the Chinese help? Remember that the head of the World Bank has always been an American and the head of the IMF a European and that, as we all know, the Americans and the Europeans have been running the show for a pretty long time, while, as already stated setting their "conditions" and robbing the "debtors" of their resources.
The Chinese are in Africa, giving soft loans and discovering that after the conditions set by the IMF, conditions that have kept that continent and, indeed, countries all over the world firmly in the West's pocket, those soft loans, and the Chinese presence that comes with them, are viewed by many countries as the lesser evil and it could even be that the Chinese model is becoming an alternative to a financial system, which, has been in place to support the West's hegemony. Of course, it might be that the West is ready to share the global hegemony cake with the Chinese and ready because it doesn't have an alternative. Nevertheless, while the Chinese might be tempted to help, we can be sure that if they do, this will, indeed, entail a reordering of the world financial system and, a priori, at least some sharing of global power.
Such a scenario can function as long as there is no real clash of geopolitical interests between the West and China. However, while this might ultimately be good news for the strategists in Washington and Beijing it will not be welcome in Africa and in those other places where the Chinese are providing soft loans. China and the West as global partners and one is reminded of the last scene in George Orwell's 'Animal Farm' when the pigs and their former enemies meet to do business, "The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which."
1 http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/apr/15/bp.sovereignwealthfunds
2 see http://thediplomatabroad.blogspot.com/search?q=morgan+stanley
3 see http://thediplomatabroad.blogspot.com/2008/06/century-of-war.html
4 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/business/worldbusiness/29franc.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1225562511-xHPsNNQZhMqf2g6HNJV+Kg
5 Ibid

Who is behind the violence in Kzrgyzstan

When a UN official accuses "outside sources" of being behind the escalating violence in Kyrgyzstan, there are good reasons to conclude that the contention has substance. The "new great game" continues and Kyrgyzstan, where both US and Russian troops are stationed, has a central role to play in it. The question, of course, is who is behind the violence and if we have the interim government head, Roza Otunbayeva, effectively inviting the Russians to invade the country we might be sure that it is not Moscow that is destabilising the country at the moment. Furthermore, with Kyrgyzstan being a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which both China and Russia are members of, it is all the more difficult to imagine why either Moscow or Beijing would want to destabilise the government in Bishkek. Moreover, does Moscow really want more ethnic instability on its borders to add to its problems in the Caucasus and itsnt a stable Kyrgyzstan crucial for Beijing and its thirst for raw materials?

Of course, the evidence is mainly of the Sherlock Holmes variety at this stage. However, a modicum of rational deduction would bring us to the conclusion that the United States is once again responsible for innocents dying thousands of miles from its borders. After all, as was reported in an earlier post, they "were behind the so-called "tulip revolution" in Kyrgyzstan five years ago with Mike Stone, at that time, the project director for Freedom House, a so-called "pro-democracy" foundation that was part-funded by the American government, reported as having said, "mission accomplished,"after the crowds drove out the then President Askar Akayev and his family." Fortunately, it is not to be expected that their shennanigens this time will read to the collapse of Otunbayeva's government. Nevertheless, it won't be for the want of trying and we might not only expect many more civilians to die before the violence is crushed but also a climate where future generations of Uzbeks and Kyrgyz will find it difficult to live together. That, of course, will at least mean a less stable Kyrgyzstan and that alone is enough to make it worth Washington's effort.

The coming conflict

Before leaving Zhengzhou at the beginning of the week there was a mad dash to my bank to transfer money back to Germany. Well, it wasn't exactly a "dash", more of a crawl, as the taxi struggled to negotiate some five kilometres. In the end it was decided to run what was probably about half the distance and there was me turning up, soaked, and in very much of a hurry to transfer the money quickly, so that I could get back home and then on to the airport on time for my flight to Beijing.

The traffic is a major problem in Zhengzhou and experiencing it makes us all too aware of why the laws of thermodynamics dictate that we are living on a planet with finite resources and that that planet cannot support itself indefinitely. The Chinese don't appear to get it but there can be no Chinese road to socialism. For as Marx himself said, "human economies are in the last analysis dependent for survival on the existence of material conditions of production."  In a world of finite resources any economy predicted on growth must ultimately fail. The choking, the starting and stuttering, the crawling and the coughing in the traffic in Zhengzhou demonstrate the nature of that failure. If it doesn't explode, it is going to implode.

Of course, people are not entirely stupid and with the Chinese locking up long term oil deliveries from countries such as Brazil, Russia and Venuzuela there is some evidence to suggest that Beijing is thinking about the problem. However, there can be no doubt that, China, is not going to be immune to the shortages and rocketing prices that will accompany world oil production peaking. Moreover, along with  those global shortages and rapidly increasing prices we are going to have ever increasing conflict and it is a conflict which will ultimately be global and open. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Liu Jianchao, might say that China's ever increasing demand for natural resources can be resolved peacefully, but not only does this contradict what is already happening, it also flies in the face of a very fundamental Marxist precept. Hello, Mr Liu, "resources are finite, resources are finite."

The recent post in this blog "The South China Sea and learning to play the "Great Game"highlights one area in particular where this conflict has already started. Of course, there are others; for instance, Central Asia, Latin America and Africa! Moreover, it is a conflict that has been produced by what Naomi Klein refers to as "disaster capitalism". However, the essential contradictions of capitalism. as understood by Marx himself,  demonstrate all too clearly that capitalism itself is a disaster. We might be left not only wondering what part of this the Chinese "Capitalist" Party either forgot or chose to ignore and as we prepare to enter another capitalist war.

The Great Game Revisited 2

The first day working at Brunel and it is much of a muchness in the presessional scene, a sort of "deja vu, been there, done it, seen it before", feeling! Still, a routine of sorts is beginning to establish itself and that can only be good, the jobs a bit of a dawdle and well that is because of the "been there, done it, seen it before"; cannot teach an old dog new tricks, can you?

The routine appears to be that I will be going into Uxbridge either on a three minute, sixty pence, bus ride or by taking a fifteen minute walk after finishing teaching every day and, when I get there, there will be a serious reading of the papersbefore I take myself home. Today's reading of the papers saw me concentrate on the events in Georgia and the conclusion would have to be the Vladimir and George are not already having the hoped for chit chat and that Mr Saakashvilli has been brilliantly outplayed by the Russians who are now in Gori the birthplace of 'Uncle Joe' and some fifty miles away from the Georgian capital Tbillisi. Now they are not directly threatening the only non-Russian controlled pipeline from Central Asia and the Caucasus to the West via the Turkish port of Ceyhan but is it not just possible that they could be ready to up the stakes, force Mr Saakashvilli's resignation, and get a government in Tbillsi that they can influence? The evidence would, at least, appear to suggest that the Russians are at last turning the tide of American influence in their backyard.

It is all about the oil, of course, and the portents are, indeed, ominous. The British media are suggesting that Saakashvilli is the real loser but the thousands that have died because of his arrogance and foolishness are the very real losers. Furthermore, having experienced this slap in the face, while at the same time realising the stakes, the Americans might just decide to attack Iran sooner than expected through its proxy Israel.

The map above portrays the situation in Georgia.

A Century of War

“A Century of War, Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order”, by William Engdahl is, in my opinion, a fascinating read. The book basically portrays how Anglo-American financial and energy interests have dominated the world for over a hundred years. His hypothesis that the World Bank and the IMF and the "dollar system" are used to cement this control is sound and for that alone the book is worth reading. However, more than this he shows how, beginning with early British interest in the Gulf those financial and strategic interests have been linked to the black black gold. No surprises there and the "Orwellian Newspeak"; the "war on terrorism", "democracy", "moderate Arab states", "genocide in Dafur" rhetoric is only blatant hypocrisy.
An easier piece to read is, "The New great Game, Blood and Oil in Central Asia", by Lutz Kleveman and it achieves what it is trying to achieve. It makes us aware of the conflicting interests of the major players in Central Asia. China is one of those major players. It is, however, China's activities on the African continent that I want to look at briefly, where soft loans or 100% grants have gone into building schools, roads and hospitals in some of the poorest regions. These soft loans and grants are in stark contrast to the strict measures imposed by the IMF and the World Bank and in return the Chinese already receive 30% of their crude oil from Africa. A lot of that oil comes from the Sudan and it is, therefore, not surprising that Washington has leveled genocide charges at the Sudanese government only too well aware that if accepted in the United Nations those charges could ultimately lead to real intervention by Washington in the region. Let us be aware, atrocities have been committed in the Sudan, misery is extensive and there have been up to 300,000 deaths but let us too not be fooled as to the United States true motives.
Elsewhere it is a similar story; Kosovo, Myanmar, Iraq, Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and all the other "stans". The stakes, of course, are high with China set to overtake the United States as the greatest consumer of oil in a few years time and, perhaps too, in the not all too distant future refusing to buy US government debt. We should at least remain focused on 'Uncle Sam's' real motivation when preaching human rights, democracy and free trade. In doing this we could, perhaps, remind ourselves and others that we are indeed living on a planet where resources are finite. This will mean that we can all at least understand that as things are conflict is almost inevitable and that very real changes in our thinking and in the world's economic system are required if it is to be avoided.
The picture is of the cover to William Engdahl's book; "A Century of War".

The Great Game moves to Africa

On October 1st 2008, AFRICOM became the US Defense Department's tenth unified combatant command(1) and was I really naive enough to think that "Uncle Sam" was going to let the Chinese, more or less, have their way in Africa? Now, it would appear that the son of a black Kenyan might be doing a lot of focusing on trying to counter Chinese influence on his daddy's continent and is it a coincidence that just as AFRICOM is being launched, we are hearing of pirates on the important oil routes off of the horn and of a "new" civil war erupting in the Congo?(2) Moreover, might we even have another reason for the coming of Mr "Hope and Change" Obama? Possibly taking it a wee bit too far on the conspiracy theories there. However, what are the facts on the ground?
Well, for one thing Joseph Kabila, the Congo's first democratically elected President has been told to rethink a $9 billion joint Congo-China venture by an apparently US backed thug called General Nkunda, a long standing henchman of the President of Rwanda, the US trained Kagame. Anyway to keep it simple the said General's well-armed troops have surrounded Gomo in the North of Kivu a province, which Geologists believe has some of the richest repositories of minerals in the world. Now we have Nkunda telling Kabila that he has to rethink his deal with the Chinese and forget the fact that the money provided by the Chinese in exchange for their mining rights was going to be used for things like, building schools, hydroelectric dams, hospitals and railway links to southern Africa, the Congolese port of Matadi and to Katanga.(3) Of the oil rich Gulf of Guinea, and of Nigeria in particular, we will be hearing a lot and now "Uncle Sam" has that little bit of muscle that will allow him to get closer to his proxies and will accompany his humanitarian efforts in the Dafur region.(3)
It would appear that interesting times are looming in Africa just as the first "Afro-American" President is about to appear on the scene. There will be all sorts of messy little proxy wars and I wouldn't be surprised if the Congolese have to wait a little bit longer for their schools and hospitals. Let us not be too surprised of the "hope and change" man decides to support Nkunda's death squads to remove the democratically elected President ..... in the name of democracy, of course!
1 http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/673xzgig.asp
2 http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/Geopolitics___Eurasia/Africom/africom.html
3 http://thediplomatabroad.blogspot.com/search?q=dafur

Torture in Uzbekistan and a bunch of Western hypocrites

It would appear that Craig Murray, who was the British Ambassodor in Tashkent, until October 2004, is  a pretty decent chap. However, that shouldn't entice us to think that the ex-ambassador is representative of a Foreign Office that doesn't only turn a blind eye to abuses of human rights but indeed at least facilitates those abuses . No, using Craig's said fondness for women and alcohol the mandarins in Whitehall and their political masters decided to get rid of him when he started to investigated human rights abuses by the Uzbek government under Islam Karimov, which was apparently  torturing and killing thousands under the cover of combating terrorism. Well, what could they do?  Craig didn't only investigate the killings, when his bosses at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office ignored his reports, he went public. No Craig, was bad for business, he had to go,  after all he was "talking of people having their children tortured in front of them until they sign a confession.  .......of people being boiled alive." Although, it might just be that it was Craig 's knowing that "the intelligence from these torture sessions was being received by the CIA, and was being passed on" that got him the order of the boot.

One might wonder, of course, what "information" the CIA receives from half-dead opponents of Karimov who the dictator uses to conjure up a threat of thousands  of thousands of wild-eyed al-Qaeda-trained terrorists waiting to strike; "wild-eyed al-Queda terrorists" and Craig Murray told a different tale in the 'Guardian' on May 16th 2005, some months after hundreds of pro-democracy protesters had been slaughtered in the city of Andijan; "I can give you a direct assurance that they are - or in many cases were - in no sense Islamist militants. They died an unwanted embarrassment to US foreign policy." Which, of course, brings us to what it is really all about and it is all about oil. What after all are a few thousand thousand dead and tortured when black gold comes into the equation?

Moreover, while the hypocrites in Washington would like us to believe that it was their altruistic criticism of the crackdown in Andijan that led to U.S. troops being evicted from the Karshi-Khanabad with Holbrooke's visit Tashkent there is enough evidence to suggest that the base was never really important. Or, not important enough for him to consider its re-opening a possibility when asked in Kazakstan this week.  Furthermore, a reasonable modicum of deductive skills might bring us quickly to the conclusion that an Islam Karimov who knows how to play the "Great Game" card and turn to China or Russia when it is desirable or opportune to do so, could afford to turn his back on the Americans in 2005. Nevertheless, getting to use Uzbekistan's railway, which is already being used to funnel military supplies for NATO into Afghanistan does seem to be important to Washington and that and other considerations mean that the hypocrites in Washington are making every effort to get their relationship back on track with a dictatorship that tortures its opponents to death.

Yes, Craig Murray cares about human rights and he gets upset when people get boiled alive or raped in front of their family with a bottle. The governments in Washington and London don't only not care about human rights but they are actively involved in the abuse of those rights and in torture. Or is Mr Murray telling lies when he say that "the CIA was sending people to be tortured in Uzbekistan?" Still, "Uncle Sam" and his number one side-kick "John Bull" can rest assured, they are not the only ones and we are informed that, the "lover of rain forests", Sting put up a less than convincing defence of his decision to play for Gulnara Karimova, the despot's glamorous daughter and anointed heir. A defence which failed to mention the some two million pounds that he received for the concert. Nevertheless, let us not be too hard on Sting who is only one of an array of Western stars and governments who want a piece of the Karimovs' cake. After all, we are only talking about turning a blind eye to boiling people to death and raping them with bottles.

There might be method in Bibi's madness

The 'Guardian' reports: "The US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, today demonstrated a new-found steeliness towrads Israel  by making it clear she was expecting it to back down in the row between the two countries and offer concessions needed for a resumption of Middle East peace talks." "Offer concessions", what absurd ridiculous nonsense and the Zionists in the United States and Israel play out their disgusting "little" game as Netanyahu tells his friends: "With regard to commitments to peace, the government of Israel has proven over the last year that it is commitment to peace, both in words and actions."

Still, we get spoon fed with the most disgusting drivel, don't we? "Obama runs out of patience with Israel", "Israel feeling rising anger from the U.S." and Hillary with her "Israel must prove it is committed to the Mideast peace process with actions". Yes, serious stuff and enough to make Bibi and his boys shake in their boots if it were not for the fact that not only are the reprimands insincere and farical but they are also immediately followed by Hillary, "brushing aside suggestions that US-Israeli relations were in crisis and reaffirming America's steadfast commitment to the security of the Jewish state" and Joe Biden stressing  that the United States had "no better friend than Israel". Yes, "the security of the Jewish state" and who knows, we might even have Netanyahu putting a hold on his plans and doing even more to prove his commitment to peace and once he does that, all the little quislings from the Palestinian Authority will have to prove themselves "true partners for peace", fall into line, take the Zionist money and run. Methinks that the odds on Benjiman Netanyahu and Mahmoud Abbas picking up the Nobel Peace Prize have just shortened.


Yes, there might be method in Bibi's apparent madness, his "spitting" in his friends faces, and they really, really are angry, aren't they? Bibi backs down, the daily drivel informs us all that he has proven himself a great statesman and the Palestinians have nowhere to go but to "negotiate" themselves out of existence. The "peace process" has won the day, and for all those who cannot accept the Zionist end game, there is a "ban of empire", beyond the pale the lot of them, "terrorists"! However, let us bring some sort of sanity into this madness.

"Negotiations", no need for them! That is right, no need; well the only thing that has to be negotiated is the dismantling of the illegal settlements and how to end the illegal occupation and the "peace process"? Well, our IDF bully boys just have to stop bullying, occupying and killing. Still, it is not all over yet and the 'Guardian' goes on to tell us that Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah movement is facing pressure from its own largely defunct military wing, the Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, which is demanding to be allowed to resume the armed struggle against Israel. Could all backfire, couldn't it, Bibi's plan? Well, once Netanyahu gives his thumbs up and temporarily "suspends" the building of new settlements in East Jerusalem and once Abbas then agrees to meet him and shake his hand, it is going to be difficult for Fatah's "largely defunct military wing", for 'Hamas', for anyone to take up the cudgel in defence of the Palestinians. After all they will only be disturbing the "peace process" and the "men of peace". Yes, there might be method in Bibi's apparent "madness".

You cannot fool all of the people all of the time

The hype continues and in a typical piece of Washington newspeak we are told that there is a "currency war" and that progress towards a more balanced global economy is being undermined by China undervaluing its currency. Of course, away from the hype and on a bottom up reading of a 'newspeak', which among other things maintains that "War is Peace," "Freedom is Slavery," "Ignorance is Strength," we might conclude that the magic money produced abracadabra style by the Federal Reserve is all about ensuring that there never will be a balanced global economy. Of course, Friedmanism was never about balancing economies, global or national and if any proof of that fact were needed, we need look no further than the United States itself where it looks as if the Obama administration is in the process of extending the Bush tax cuts to the wealthy.

Fortunately, there is more than a little truth in the contention that you can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time and, with China refusing to float its currency and the Germans not about to put a cap on their exports, the great globalisation game pursued by the disaster capitalists might be coming to an end. Moreover, with members of Obama's own Democratic Party up in arms on hearing that the White House is in the process of ceding to Republican demands to extend the high-end tax cuts, it might even be that even in the USA the majority has had enough. Yes,  the evidence would indeed suggest that you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.